Ohotsk Region Anomalous Warming

Far Eastern Siberia, Sea of Ohotsk

Four 2 degree grid boxes are located in the the region adjoining the Sea of Ohotsk

Figure 5

Ohotsk Grid Point 57.5 N-142.5 E

Ohotsk is the only station and there is data from Jones 1994, GHCN and GISS. Figure 6 shows all three records

Figure 6

Salient points are.

Jones 1994 trend warms at about 1.3 degrees over the 82 years, although the cool outlier around 1914 looks incorrect and is inserting a warming bias.
The GHCN data cools but could be affected by two missing years around 1931 which are causing a cooling bias to the trend.
The GISS / GHCN record has had data gaps filled and has no trend.
There is an early outlier of data 1891 to 1895 for Jones 1994 but this is before the time frame of the Karl 1998 map and does look anomalously cool, which could be enhancing the Jones 1994 warming trend.

In the face of considerable agreement between GHCN and GISS, it is hard to have any confidence in the strong warming trend from Jones 1994.

Ajan, Grid Point 57.5 N-137.5 E

In the case of Ajan, the only station in the grid box, there are records from the three sources and Figure 7 shows all have data from 1932-33 and there is very little difference in trend. Jones 1994 warms a little more because of the few extra post 1989 data points not yet in the other datsets.

Figure 7

It is possible to see about 0.35 degrees warming over 63 years in the Jones 1994 data but the writer is mystified as to how this grid box can be rated at six times that over 95 years.

Im Poliny Osi Grid Point 52.5 N-137.5 E

Similar to Ohotsk and Ajan, Im Poliny Osi is the only station in the grid box and there are data from the three sources. Once again the Jones 1994 trend warms more than GHCN and GISS, this time at about 1 degree from 1936 to 1993.
Both GISS and GHCN found earlier data, from 1911 and 1914 respectively and demonstrate negligible warming

Figure 8

So once again the full magnitude of Jones 1994 warming is not obviously justifiable and it flies in the face of negligible trends from GHCN and GISS.

Ekimcan Grid Point 52.5 N-132.5 E

For the final grid box all the sources have data from two stations, Ekimcan, with data from 1914-16 to 1989 and Cekunda with data 1936-1989. Figure 9 shows data from the three sources and once again Jones 1994 shows most warming, about 1.9 degrees over the 1914-1989 span. GISS has about 0.65 degrees and GHCN near 0.9 over the same timespan.

Cekunda has similar warming to Ekimcan but over a shorter timespan and is not shown to save space but does not look homogenous with Ekimcan in earlier data. Figure 9 demonstrates that the Ekimcan warming is suspect because the station warms relative to both Norsk and Im Poliny Osi, neighbours to the west and east, see Figure 5.

Figure 9

Figure 10 shows a difference graph with Ekimcan minus neighbours Norsk and Im Poliny Osi, all GHCN. All of these stations and Im Poliny Osi are classed as rural in GHCN, ie. population is under 9,000. Figure 10 demonstrates that the Ekimcan warming must be treated with suspicion because the station warms ~1.5 degrees 1914-89 relative to Norsk and Im Poliny Osi, neighbours to the west and east, see Figure 5.

Figure 10

So to sum up this grid point.

Warming close to the Karl 1998 magnitude is found in the Jones 1994 record but the source Ekimcan is suspect as shown in Fig 10.

Summary for Sea of Ohotsk Grid Boxes

After reviewing stations in four grid boxes near the Sea of Ohotsk that are indicated as warming at 2 degrees 1901-1996 on the Karl 1998 map Fig 1, all warming seen is contentious and no significant warming close to 2 degrees in 95 years can be found in homogenous rural stations.

Jones 1994 data consistently warms more than GHCN and GISS which should be a danger signal to those assuming that all global temperature record datasets are producing very similar results.

Warwick S. Hughes, 22, July, 2000

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