Exaggerated USSR   Warming 1901-1996
 

A major issue in climatology today is the departure in trends between surface temperature records and those from the lower troposphere collected by radiosondes and satellites Barry 2000 (2).       The integrity of the surface temperature record, Jones 1994 (11)  will continue to be questioned while the station  composition includes urban sites.

In recent years it has become apparent that a significant focus of century long "global warming"  has been the general region of the old USSR as  evidenced  by the Figure 1 map of global anomalies 1901-1996,  Karl 1998 (12),   derived from the Jones 1994  (11) global dataset.

Figure 1


 

Karl's  1998 map shows the warming over the 1901-1996 period by five degree grid boxes and it is clear that several ~ + 2 degree warming grid boxes are in the area of the USSR.  Gray, 2000 (5] has recently drawn attention to the significance of these high warming USSR gridded data.

This has lead to a station by station examination of  the components of  9  x  +2 degree warming grid boxes from four areas of the USSR,  Hughes 2000 (10).  These reviews are at the very peaks of claimed global warming.
 

Three global temperature record datasets have been compared in this study;

Notes on data sources can be read in (10).

Summary of Results of Search for Warming

Surely it can be expected that warming trends will be found in homogenous rural stations within these 9 grid boxes, that approximate to the warming magntiudes indicated by the size of the red circle symbols on the Figure 1 map.

Readers expecting this 2 degree warming to be confirmed  are going to be disappointed because in case after case not only can these trends  not be found in the Jones 1994 data but GHCN  & GISS data finds less warming and sometimes cooling trends.

Figure 2

Trends from stations from the four groups of high warming grid boxes are set out in tables below.   Except for Khanti-Mansi, more detailed maps can be accessed by  link.

Grid Box Warming Trends Station by Station

Table A                    Khanti Mansi        62.5N, 77.5E.
Station Jones 1994 GHCN GISS
Tarko Sale Only 28 years of data, 1967-96, 57% gaps, warming trend of +2 degrees if projected to 1901. Cooling of -2 degrees from the mid-1930's to 1989 but record may be too warm prior to 1960. Cooling of -2 degrees from the mid-1930's to 89 but record may be too warm prior to 1960.
Aleksandrovsk, see Tarko Sale link warms at ~0.6 degrees mid 1930's to 1990 Cools at ~0.7 degrees mid 1930's to 1989 Cools at ~0.7 degrees mid 1930's to 1989

Global warming science is on pitifully weak foundations in this grid box  if the claimed 2 degree warming  has been influenced by the selective use of 28 years of gap ridden data out of a 62 year data string and the projection of this trend of  limited statistical validity back 66 years to 1901.

Professor Jones and Dr. Tom Karl,  tell us it aint so.
 

Four Grid Boxes Far Eastern Siberia, Sea of Ohotsk

Ohotsk  57.5N, 142.5E
Ajan 57.5N, 137.5E
Im Poliny Osi 52.5N, 137.5E
Ekimcan 52.5N, 132.5E

Table B
Station Jones 1994 GHCN GISS
Ohotsk Warms at ~1.3 degrees from 1914-95.  Cools by ~1 degree from 1914-89 No trend, 1914-91 most data gaps filled.
Ajan Warms ~0.35 degrees over 63 years since 1933-95 No trend  1933-89 No trend  1932-89
Im Poliny Osi Warms ~1 degree 1936-93 No sig. trend from 1914-89 No sig trend from 1911-89
Ekimcan Warms ~1.9 degrees 1914-89 Warms ~0.9 degrees 1914-89 Warms 0.65 degrees 1914-89
Cekunda Warms ~1 degree 1937-89 Warms ~0.9 1937-89 Warms ~0.7 1937-89

Note that when Ekimcan is differenced from its two nearest neighbors, Norsk to the west and Im Poliny Osi to west, Ekimcan is shown to have a non-climatic warming of  ~1.5 degrees 1914 to 1989.    Only three times 'global warming".

Close examination of station records from the high warming Sea of Ohotsk region shows in all cases Jones 1994 data warms more than GHCN and GISS.  This can be influenced by selection of shorter data, as in Im Poliny Osi, use of cooler early years, as in Ohotsk  and more post 1989 data as noted above.

Weighing up all of the above, using the longest data strings avaliable and  taking account of elementary homogeneity testing of Ekimcan,  any claim that grid boxes in this region can be warming at 2 degrees 1901-96 must be highly contentious.

Two Grid Boxes Lake Baikal Region.

Irkutsk 52.5N, 102.5E
Ulan Ude 52.5N, 107.5E

Table C
Station Jones 1994 GHCN GISS
Barguzuin No trend 1935-89 Cools by ~1 degree 1901-89 Cools ~1 degree 1901-89
Zigalovo Warms ~1.3 degrees 1949-89 No trend 1939-89 No trend 1938-89
Irkustsk Warms at ~+2degrees 1901-95 7 versions, all with severe urban warming contamination, none near homogonous with Barguzuin / Zigalovo. See graph of 7 versions available.
Ulan Ude, see Irkutsk link Warms at ~+2degrees 1901-95 3 versions available, all with UHI warming. Not required

For these  grid box the Jones 1994 data warms more than GHCN and GISS through using selectively truncated records in the case of  Barguzuin & Zigalovo.
In the case of Irkutsk and Ulan Ude which are copy book cases of urban warming contamination, both GHCN and GISS datasets contain multiple versions with trends just as badly non-climatic as Jones 1994.  There is abundant published evidence on the magnitude of heat island contamination,  refs (1, 9, 17) are just a few.

It  would be interesting if  the generators of these three datasets and the author of (6,7,13,15)  are prepared to justify on this web site the use of  Irkutsk and Ulan Ude in generating global climate trends.

Two Grid Boxes Lake Balhash Region

Balhash 47.5N, 77.5E
Frunze 42.5N, 72.5E

Table D
Station Jones 1994 GHCN GISS
Balhash No trend1938-93, only station in grid box, where is the warming ? Warms ~2 degrees over 1932-89 Warms ~2 degrees over  1935-89
Fergana, above on graph Warms ~1.6 degrees 1919-89 No trend 1901-89 No trend 1901-89
Frunze, see link for Fergana Warms ~1 degree 1936-89 Warms ~1.5 degrees 1925-89 Warms ~1.5 degrees 1925-89

Table E                                             Cities Bordering Frunze Grid Box
Station Jones 1994 GHCN GISS
Tashkent Warms by ~1.3 degrees 1901-95 V similar to Jones 94
Alma Ater, see Tashkent link Warms by ~1.2 degrees 1901-95
Turkestan, see Tashkent link Warms ~1 degree 1917-89, excludes early data. Cools 0.4 degrees 1901-89

In the case of the Balhash grid box Jones 1994 finds no trend in the only station Balhash,  so any warming here is a mystery.

There are no rural stations in the Frunze grid box  but looking at the smaller cities of Fergana and Turkestan (near neighbour), both with evidence of little trend over the 1901-89 period,  it is difficult to comprehend the ~2 degree warming trends claimed. Two rural stations nearby to the grid boxes have been shown to have data affected by errant warming trends, see summing up section below.

Summing Up Plus Observations on Global Temperature Datasets

What has been revealed through station by station analysis of these high warming USSR grid boxes is that;


Implications for GHCN and GISS Global Data

The authors of both of these global data compilations have in recent publications,  (16) and (7)  pointed out that generating global trends with urban stations excluded does not alter significantly the global warming trends produced by Jones 1994.

These station by station reviews show that at a grid box level where the trees are visible, this notion that the UHI affected urban stations make no difference is simply untenable.

The only explanation for the results obtained in (16)  must be that the sum of  all trends trends in urban data  (both climatic and non-climatic) equals rural climatic trends plus errant rural trends such as are  illustrated above in summing up and discussed in detail  in (10).

Industry leaders and policymakers faced with increasing IPCC pressure for carbon taxes or some other carbon dioxide cut back method, must protest at the unreliability of the Jones 1994 trends, a major cornerstone of the IPCC  driven  greenhouse industry.
 

Implications for Comparing Jones 1994 Land Temperature Trends with  Lower Tropospere  Trends

It must be crystal clear from this review that no meaningful result could be automatically expected by comparing Jones 1994 grid box trends with satellite or radiosonde data.  It is pointless to expect lower troposphere trends to be strongly correlated with those from urban areas such as Irkutsk.

Equally importantly, this reviews highlights the high proportion of errant warming trends in rural stations which means that careful checking  of land records with neighbors would be prudent before leaping to conclusions about correlations or the lack of between lower troposphere and ground.

References

[1]   Balling, RC, Idso SB (1989) Historical temperature trends in the United States and the effect of urban population    growth. Journal of Geophysical Research 94:3359-3363

[2]   Barry, P (2000)  Contrary Thermometers,  http://spacescience.com/headlines/y2000/ast21jul_1m.htm?list

[3]   Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), (2000) Surface Temperature: Station Data.    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/station_data

[4]   Goodridge JD (1992) Urban bias influences on long-term California air temperature trends . Atmospheric  Environment 26B (1): 1-7.

[5]   Gray V (2000) The Surface Temperature Record.  http://www.microtech.com.au/daly/graytemp/surftemp.htm

[6]   Hansen, JR, Lebedeff S, (1987) Global trends of measured surface temperature. J. Geophysical Research   92:13,345-13,372

[7]   Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glasoe, J, Sato, MKI, (1999) GISS analysis of surface temperature change J. Geophys. Res.  104: 30997-31022.

[8]   Hansen JR (2000). http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp

[9]   Hughes WS, Balling RC (1996) Urban influences on South African temperature trends. Int J Climatology 16:935-940   (also available at http://www.microtech.com.au/daly/warwick.htm )

[10]   Hughes WS, (2000), Global  Warming, week by week reviews demonstrating exxagerations in claimed warming, http://www.ozemail.com.au/~hughesw7

[11]   Jones PD , Raper SCB, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Kelly PM, Wigley TML. (1986) Northern Hemisphere surface air   temperature variations 1851-1984. J. Clim Appl Met. 25:161-179

[12]   Jones PD , Raper SCB, Cherry BSG, Goodess CM,  Wigley TML, Santer B, Kelly PM,  Bradley RS, Diaz HF, . (1991) An Updated Global Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Anomaly Data Set: 1851-1990. Carbon Dioxide Research Program, Environmental Sciences Division, US Department of Energy.

[13]   Jones PD, (1994) Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: a reanalysis and an update to 1993.  J Clim 7:1794-1802

[14]   Karl TR (1998) Annexe A Regional trends and variations of temperature and precipitation in The regional impacts  of climate change, Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (Eds) Cambridge University Pressm Cambridge

[15]   Peterson TC, Vose RS (1997) An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database. Bull    Amer Met Society 78: 2837-2849

[16]   Peterson TC, Gallo KP, Lawrimore J, Owen TW, Huang A, McKittrick DA (1999) Global rural temperature trends     Geophys Res Letters 26:329-332

[17]   Tayanc M, Karaca, M, Yenigun O, (1997) Annual and seasonal air temperature trend patterns of climate change and urbanization effects in relation to air pollutants in Turkey.  J Geoph Res 102, 1909-1919.

Warwick S. Hughes,  July, 2000